Today was yet another session where volume failed to show decisive direction (6 days straight is getting close to the record), but the Heat Gauge at -1 hints that the bulls may have the upper hand at this point. So why does SPY keep settling in and around 210 then? Well, it takes a long time for big institutions to build their enormous positions, and since the end of March TVO tracked most of their heavy buying right in the magic 208-210 range. And when the big boys are all in with no plans to sell, it’s a real challenge for the bears to win that kind of staring match. After too many failed attempts many shorts inevitably end up switching to “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” mode and jump on board the train, often just as it’s leaving the station. And it’s best to have your ticket in hand if you want to catch it. -MD
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